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By Gabrielius Landsbergis, Minister of Foreign Affairs of the Republic of Lithuania When a plane from Athens to Vilnius was forced to land in Minsk with threats of explosion and the scrambling of a military fighter jet, this was met with an uproar of shock and anger from the European capitals. It seemed, at the time, like the vindication of Jean Monnet's famous words, "Europe will be forged in crises". Speedily and unanimously, Europe decided on crisis response and on the sanctions vis-à-vis president Alexander Lukashenko's regime that keeps Belarusian people captive. Europe was magnificent. There is a danger of complacency creeping in, however, as we congratulate ourselves for our fine performance. Let's take a step back and take stock of the larger perspective – what is happening here, precisely?

Heretofore, weaponisation of civil institutions such as flight controls was not thought of as an option. Now it is. What next?

Difficult to say when one is dealing with the regime that is bordering on insanity. Lukashenko's Belarus is increasingly reminiscent of North Korea in its mix of capricious unpredictability and unbridled aggression born out of paranoia.

Yet is it really only Lukashenko's doing? We still don't have enough information on who has been involved in the incident, the investigation is still ongoing. However, one thing is clear – Russia was aware of it, their reactions were ready and came out before western shock reached Twitter.

Moreover, like in old Soviet days, Lukashenko immediately flew to report to his Russian patron. Since last year's stolen election, Russia was involved in Belarussian affairs more than ever with political consultants, military advisors, and propaganda aid.

The question I would like to raise is - what is the end goal of current Russian regime apart from ensuring its own survival?

Exporting instability across the border was Russia's go-to mode for the last couple of decades, from Transnistria to East Ukraine, from Abkhazia to Nagorno Karabakh. But that instrument has become increasingly costly.

What we see happening now is Putin's attempt to fix "the biggest geopolitical mistake of 20th century" – the dissolution of the Soviet Union.

Ultimately, it doesn't matter whether Kremlin does it to reduce the costs of ineffectiveness, in order to create a personal legacy, or because it is unable to de-escalate the situation around the Russian borders.

Belarus is close to being taken over by Russia.

Now is the time we should ask ourselves - what happens if Lukashenko signs a common state agreement with Putin? Shouldn't we call it annexation, as we did with Crimea? If this, the Belarus should become an absolute no-go zone for western businesses, just as Crimea is today.

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